First Signs that Market is Beginning to Turn Are Appearing

The first signs have appeared that suggest things are starting to get better for the apartment industry, said Greg Willett, vice president of research and analysis for MPF Research, in a National Apartment Association (NAA) Conference and Exposition session entitled “U.S. Apartment Market Outlook.”

As Willett noted, the supply picture is the simplest to envision. Completions are slowing; since 2006, quarterly completions averaged about 50,000 units. However, by the last half of 2009, MPF Research predicts that this figure will be reduced to about 30,000 units. And by 2010, only about 20,000 units are predicted to be delivered each quarter.

Only some metros currently have any significant amount of product under construction, noted Willett, with Austin having about a 5 percent stock growth based on units under construction, as of April 2009. Charlotte, N.C., Dallas, Las Vegas, San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver and Raleigh, N.C. also are expected to continue to deliver units through the end of 2009. Only Dallas is slated to add anything significant after the end of this year.

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